Webinar: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change from the (Climate Science Special Report) U.S. Perspective

Climate change detection and attribution is the process of assessing whether certain observed changes in the climate, including certain extreme events, are unlikely to be due to natural variability alone and whether the changes or events can be attributed to some known forcing mechanism such as increasing greenhouse gases.  Based on IPCC AR5 (and reinforced by new record global temperatures since IPCC AR5), it is extremely likely that more than half of the global mean temperature increase since 1951 was caused by human influence on climate.  The record-high level of global temperatures in 2016 was not even possible without anthropogenic forcing, according to CMIP5 models.  However, going beyond global temperature, the CSSR plays a unique role in focusing on detection and attribution from a U.S. perspective.  Examples of detection and attribution statements and summary findings from the CSSR for the U.S. are summarized for a number of variables, including regional surface temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, drought, flooding, wildfires, extreme storms, and sea level rise. An update on more recent post-CSSR research on U.S. precipitation trends by the author will also be presented